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Risk of a “Grexit” will continue to play on investor confidence this week with Greece’s referendum decision putting the embattled nation one step closer to financial collapse. With an upcoming payment of $3.9 billion due to the ECB on July 20, European leaders are expected to meet in Brussels on Tuesday to identify the next course of action. The ECB has previously noted that a default could see emergency funding lines cut and Greece exit the Eurozone.
Chinese officials implemented a number of stabilizing measures over the weekend in an attempt to support their weak equity market. These included the relaxation of investment restrictions for local government pensions, halting all IPOs, and supportive stock purchasing from the brokerage and funds management community.
On the economic front ISM Services, Trade Balance, Consumer Credit, Initial Claims, Continuing Claims and Wholesale Inventories will be released during the week. The FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday will provide further insight into the Fed’s monetary policy stance.
European and Asian markets reacted to Greece’s “No” decision with both opening considerably lower. Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis announced that he would be stepping down to ensure that further talks between European and Greek officials would go ahead. China’s stabilization measures looked to have worked with the Shanghai Composite rising 2.4% intraday.
ISM Services for June will be announced at 10 am with the market expecting 56.3. This comes in above the May figure of 55.7.
All eyes will be on Brussels on Tuesday with European leaders meeting to discuss the next steps in the Greek debt situation.
Economically, Trade Balance data will be released at 8:30 am with the market factoring in a $42.8 billion deficit vs. the previous $40.9 billion. On the employment front, the Bureau of Labor Statistics JOLTS Job Openings report is expected to soften slightly for the period. Consumer Credit for May will be released at 3 pm with $17.6 billion expected.
FOMC meeting minutes for June will be announced to the market on Wednesday, with investors expecting relatively conservative monetary policy statements in light of recent economic data. The Fed previously confirmed that monetary policy would shift in the latter part of the year, with the market touting a September rate rise.
Initial Claims, which measure state benefit filings, will be released during the morning session with a figure of 271,000 expected. Continuing Claims is expected to drop to 2,210,000 for the corresponding period.
Friday will be a quiet day on the economic and earnings front.
No important dividend stock earnings on Friday.
A key week for Greece and China as both countries are awaiting the flow on effects from decisions made over the weekend. Volatility could be the winner, if European leaders on Tuesday do not agree on a course of action and Chinese stabilization techniques are only able to temporarily stem outflows.