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Donald Trump Picture

Category

Trump's Victory

Sep 07, 2016


Donald Trump was elected as the 45th President of the United States in a stunning victory last night. While it was assured that his policies vastly differed from Hillary Clinton’s, they’ve been difficult to pin down. This has caused headaches for market handicappers.

But it’s safe to say, many of the classic Republican standbys will be big winners under a Trump presidency. And we have some insight into his policies via his stump speeches and tweets. While the picture isn’t crystal clear, we can glean an idea of which dividend stocks will do well under Trump, and which ones will suffer.

With evidence suggesting that who is elected as President can affect returns of certain sectors and industries, here’s how to play things with Trump’s Tuesday night triumph.



Three stocks that should perform well under a Trump Presidency:


Two stocks that should perform poorly under a Trump Presidency:


Buy the Military Complex


Trump emphasizes border security and ending global violence.

Ending radical Islam and stopping ISIS were major talking points of Trump’s campaign. “Bomb the hell out them!” was an actual rallying cry on his campaign trail. Additionally, securing our borders and ending violence in our cities were also major sticking points for Trump. All of those promises equate to wonderful news – and billion dollar contracts! – for the various defense contractors and military hardware suppliers. Even more so, if Trump steps up his discourse with China over its currency manipulation and moves in the South Sea.

All of that could be wonderful news for Raytheon (RTN ).

RTH is one of the largest defense contractors in the country and has its hands in a variety of military applications. But it has some very Trump-positive attributes, including a major focus on cybersecurity (to counteract Chinese hacking) and missile defense systems. These sort of precision-targeting missile systems are exactly what ISIS will be seeing now that Trump has been elected. Investors will likely see more contracts coming RTN’s way, as well as boosts to its 2.14% dividend.


Energy Will Win


Trump supports lower regulation for fracking and drilling, and is a proponent of Keystone XL.

Trump promises to boost the domestic energy sector by reducing regulations tied to fracking and drilling. This includes fewer environmental requirements, as well as opening public/federal lands for more natural resources exploration. Part of Trump’s plan in eliminating ISIS would also include taking back their oil to hand over to American companies.

In that regard, oil giant Exxon Mobil (XOM ) could be the primary winner. Aside from being named by Trump as the beneficiary to ISIS’s oil, XOM is one of the country’s largest frackers, in terms of natural gas production. Any additional lessening in regulation or costs would only benefit its bottom line. XOM yields 3.23%.

Also benefiting on the oil & gas front could be pipeline giant TransCanada (TRP ). TRP’s much-maligned Keystone XL pipeline has been delayed indefinitely. Republicans blamed President Obama and environmentalists for the delay, while Trump has vowed to build the pipeline. TRP may have already moved on from the KXL, but it would get a boost if it tries to build another big midstream system in the U.S. TRP yields 4.90%.


Obamacare Will Lose


Trump opposes Obamacare.

It’s no secret that the Republican Party hates the Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare. With that in mind, Trump has pledged to dismantle the act and the provisions that “force” U.S. citizens to have health insurance. That’s a problem for the major health insurers like UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH ). With the rollout of Obamacare, the insurers have been riding very high. UNH is up a staggering 336% since the passage of the law. Without a steady diet of new policy holders, UNH could see its gains and its 2% dividend suffer, which could happen under Trump’s presidency.


Bad for Importers


Trump is a big supporter of American-made goods.

Another major talking point for Trump were the kind of trade deals the United States has recently made. Trump argued that those deals pushed manufacturing jobs overseas to places like Mexico and China. Trump’s stance is that he wants to see more goods made in America, despite any consequences in terms of price. This includes placing tariffs on foreign-made goods and rewriting various trade policies.

For a dividend stock like Apple (AAPL ) – who builds its products in China – or someone like Wal-Mart (WMT ) – who relies on cheaply made goods for its juicy profit margins – any trade war isn’t the right answer for their bottom lines. These sort of stocks could be major sells under Trump’s presidency.


The Bottom Line


While Trump’s policies are hard to decipher, there are some winners and losers that can be inferred based on his speeches and public appearances. For dividend investors, Trump’s victory could make or break their portfolios depending on which stocks they own. The previous examples are just some of the potential winners and losers under a Trump presidency. Find out here what would have happened if Clinton had won instead.