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A Game of Tug of War—Demand-Driven Economics May Lead to a New Economic Regime

In the first quarter we reflected on the amazing dichotomy between Q1 2020 and Q1 2021, and yet, despite the rapid changes we have seen in the past 18 months, we might dare refer to Q2 2021 as “predictable”.

Many of the major trends we mentioned last quarter remain firmly in place. The U.S. economy continues to reopen, as is the case with many other countries around the world. Consumers, sitting on a glut of ~$3.5 trillion in excess savings (Source: Cornerstone Macro, WSJ Daily Shot, 6/30/21) from the pandemic restrictions and government support during the crises, have begun to spend it. Employment, despite some volatility in the data, is returning to prior levels with the most affected industries adding jobs at the fastest rate.

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