In a week that features nonfarm payrolls, many investors will be disengaged from the markets entirely as Independence Day celebrations sweep the nation. Investors returning from the long weekend will be subject to a steady stream of market-moving reports, which will shine the spotlight on the U.S. economy at the end of the second quarter.
The U.S. economy struggled in the first half of 2017, with inflation and consumer spending showing signs of softening. A repeat performance in the second half of the year could challenge the Federal Reserve’s narrative that the economy is capable of absorbing gradual interest rate increases. Although the labor market meets the Fed’s definition of full employment, job creation has lacked the same rigor as last year. Workforce participation rate remains an important issue, as does weaker earnings growth.
Economic data and a pair of high-profile earnings reports made headlines last week. To compare this week’s Market Glance with the previous edition, click here.
A pair of U.S. manufacturing reports will make headlines on Monday, although many investors are likely to use this day as an opportunity to extend their weekend ahead of Independence Day. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and IHS Markit will each produce their latest manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI), which provides a snapshot of factory conditions in the world’s largest economy. Manufacturing accounts for roughly 12% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).